Strategy 0

1. Research Question

We want to see what the best time window to market new crop corn is.


2. Hypothesis

We believe earlier in the year is better.


3. Strategy Rules

Divide the years up into 3 month continuous windows. Calculate the average price of those windows over the last 3 years.


4. Data Used

  • CBOT corn futures
  • Daily settlement prices
  • 2008–2026 sample

5. Backtest Methodology

  • Average price over past 3 years between windows
  • Transaction costs included
  • Slippage assumptions
  • Margin ignored

6. Performance Metrics

Example table:


7. Charts

This is where your content becomes powerful.

Examples:

  • equity curve
  • rolling drawdown
  • rolling Sharpe
  • yearly returns
  • hedge effectiveness
  • volatility regimes

You should lean heavily into visuals.


8. Key Findings

Bullet points.

Example:

  • Lower drawdowns during high-volatility periods
  • Underperformed in trending bull markets
  • More stable hedge effectiveness across years

9. Risks & Limitations

Very important for credibility.

Example:

  • Continuous futures assumptions
  • Liquidity limitations
  • Historical regime dependency
  • No basis considerations

10. Conclusion

Keep concise.

Example:

Rolling hedges improved risk-adjusted performance and reduced tail risk, though performance depended heavily on volatility regime and market trend persistence.


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